Bain just put it in writing: “12 is the new 5.” 

Translation for anyone still clinging to 2016: the deal doesn’t work unless you actually run the business. Awful, I know.

A decade ago, a “typical” buyout could hit a 2.5x over five years with ~5% annual EBITDA growth because leverage was fat and multiple expansion did the heavy lifting. Today, with borrowing costs up and leverage closer to 30–40%, Bain’s math says you need ~10–12% EBITDA growth to get to the same 2.5x. That’s not “ops optional.” That’s “ops or obituary.” 

And the timing couldn’t be better, because the industry is basically a museum of unsold assets.
32,000 unsold companies sitting there like a warehouse of regret, worth $3.8T.
Average hold periods drifting to ~7 years.
Distributions as a % of NAV stuck around 14%, and below 15% for four years running. 

Meanwhile, 2025 “recovered” in the way only PE can recover: loudly.
Buyout deal value up 44% to $904B and exits up 47% to $717B… driven by a handful of megadeals while overall deal count fell 6%. Champagne for the press release, tap water for the DPI. 

Also, while everyone’s building bigger “platforms,” the economics are getting lovingly shaved.
Average buyout management fee ~1.6% in 2025, down ~20% from the old 2%.
Median coinvest offered at 33 cents per dollar of fee-bearing capital, Bain translates that to about a 25% revenue haircut.
So yes, the cost of alpha is rising while the price of being a GP is falling. Stunning business model. 

“12 is the new 5” isn’t a slogan. It’s the market finally sending PE the invoice for years of confusing financial engineering with value creation.