A lot of PE firms have raised their last fund.

They just don’t realise it yet.

In 2021, LPs were piling into funds like it was the last chopper out of Saigon. Fast forward to 2024, and commitments are dripping in slower than a CFO’s reply to a marketing budget request.

The data tells the story:

• The median time to raise a fund has doubled since 2021, from 10 months to 20+ months (Preqin)
• Over 40% of funds fail to hit their fundraising target (Pitchbook, Q2 2024)
• First-time funds? Forget it. They’re down 60% YoY
• Re-up rates from LPs are falling like a stone, especially for mid-performers (aka most of the market)

And yet... PE firms are still hiring, still building out fancy offices, still acting like Fund V is just around the corner.

Here’s the inconvenient truth:
Capital isn’t infinite. LPs are rotating out. And many of the PE shops that raised in 2020–22 won’t raise again.

Why?

Because the music stopped and most GPs are still dancing.

• Interest rates are at decade highs. The cheap debt party is over.
• Exit markets are frozen. Distributions are down. LPs are nursing their “liquidity crunch hangover.”
• The denominator effect is still real. LPs are overallocated to PE and aren’t looking to add more.
• GPs deployed into peak valuations and now can’t explain their DPI with a straight face.
• Too many firms are still acting like it’s 2005. Obsessed with financial engineering and leverage models instead of building real value.

Operational value creation? Digital transformation? Talent strategy at scale?
Still “nice to haves” in too many Monday partner meetings.

Meanwhile, the winners are treating value creation like a function, not a slogan. They’re industrialising growth. Building repeatable engines. Acting more like operators, less like spreadsheets.

LPs notice.
And they’re consolidating their bets. Fewer GPs, bigger tickets, better returns.

If you’re not first quartile, you’re not in the room.
If you’re not driving real value, you’re not raising another fund.

The next few years will be a reckoning. And for a lot of firms… Fund IV wasn’t the warm-up. It was the farewell tour.